NYPF 2025 Annual Planning & Zoning Conference

Subverting the Dominant Paradigm: Europe’s Journey of Replacing “Predict and Provide” Thinking with Just the Opposite and What It Can Teach Us

Ian Todreas, TDM-CP | Monday, April 7 at 11:15 EDT.

For the past several decades, planners and policymakers have dutifully built cities and towns by predicting transportation capacity and then providing the infrastructure to accommodate it. The result? Sprawling landscapes dominated by motor vehicles that deliver traffic congestion, unhealthy air quality, inequitable access to jobs and amenities, increasing greenhouse gas emissions, and dwindling biodiversity. Are we doomed to repeat these mistakes? Perhaps not. Over the past several years, an emergent movement is gaining traction in Europe and other places that turns the “predict and provide” mindset on its head. Sometimes referred to as “vision and validate,” forward-thinking planners and policymakers are placemaking by starting with a goal-focused vision of results and lifestyle and building to that, accordingly. The result is climate resilient, more equitable, mobility-focused communities and even regional and national policies codifying the process. Can this work in the US as well? Join us as we present the origin story of “vision and validate,” its contrasts to “predict and provide,” its successes and lessons learned in Europe and developing countries, and its potential applications in the US.